NƏSRƏDDİN TUSİ adına ŞAMAXI ASTROFİZİKA RƏSƏDXANASI

Space weather and forecast Apr 11, 2019 | 10:04 / SPACE WEATHER

Space weather - Solar activity has been at a very low level. The oblast, numbered in the form of 2738 (N06E33, Cho/beta) on the solar disk, has retained its simple bipolar configuration with weak magnetic drift. The images obtained did not show any Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). During the reporting period, there was no ignition.

The flood of more than 2 MeV energy loaded electrons have risen during the reporting period and UTC reached the maximum value - 1,370 pfu. The flood of more than 10 MeV energy loaded protons remained stable at the background level throughout the entire reporting period.

During the reporting period, the negative polar CH HSS (Coronal Hole High Speed Streams) weak effect appears in the solar wind parameters. The speed of the solar wind was on average 425-475 km/sec. The total magnetic field was 4-8 nT, the BZ component is oriented south for a long time. The Phi angle is mainly concentrated in the negative sector.

The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the last 24 hours.

Space weather forecast - Solar activity will remain at a very low level during forecast days (April 11-13). However, the 2738 oblast will remain active, the probability of ignition is underestimated.

It is expected that flood of more than 2 MeV energy loaded electrons will remain at a high level from the impact of CH HSS effect during the prediction period (April 11-13). It is expected that flood of more than 10 MeV energy loaded protons will continue at the background levels during the forecast period (April 11-13).

During the forecast period (11 - 13 April), weak strengthening will be observed from the influence of CH HSS effect on solar wind parameters.

In the forecast period, the effects of the CH HSS effect can be excitement for the first two days (April 11, 12), ,less likely, the occurrence of G1-level hurricanes is not excluded. On the third day (13 April), general calm in the geomagnetic field is predicted (Kp=2-3). The probability of a magnetic hurricane is estimated to be less than 10% on the first two forecast days and less than 5% on the last day.